Bill Barr is a cautionary tale for all of us. Possibly even JD Vance.

Donald Trump is not well.

This is a much more complicated fact to assert than it should be because it has always been too true in too many ways. He wasn’t well when he called for the execution of five innocent Black teenagers for the 1980s version of “clout.” He wasn't well when he followed E. Jean Carroll into a dressing room. He wasn’t well when he, Jeffrey Epstein’s best pal, bought a teenage beauty pageant, mostly, it seems, to walk in on the contestants as they were in various stages of undress. He wasn’t well when he became the world’s most famous birther. He wasn’t well when he solicited Putin’s help to become president and launched a vast criminal conspiracy that saw five of his closest allies convicted of charges related to covering up their ties to Russia. He wasn’t well when he bungled us into the worst pandemic of the century, exacerbating the carnage, first by bowing to Xi of China and then with his relentless incompetence multiplied by his incomprehensible spite. And he obviously wasn’t well when he tried to make himself our dictator and got several of his biggest fans and a few police officers killed in the attempt.

The examples of Donald Trump's not being well are endless; you probably thought of ten more as you read that paragraph. And there will be ten more today.

So, is he not well mentally?

The evidence that he cannot cope accumulates, loitering like the large men who spend all day at his rallies. He is conscious enough of his failing abilities that he won’t debate Kamala Harris again. He won’t go on 60 Minutes. He won’t sit for an interview with any real journalist. He is avoiding fact-checks like a Wicked Witch avoids water.

All he wants to do is stand on a stage and dance like a doddering old man.

But that’s beside the point. I hesitate to suggest his mental state is much worse than it has ever been because, see above, he’s never been well. His mental health is unknowable, but his eagerness to practice evil is manifest. And my greatest fear is that we do not take him seriously because that has always been his most ferocious advantage. 

And if you’re reading this in October 2024, I’m convinced you take the threat of Donald Trump seriously. You’re doing everything you can to ensure he never gets power again, including volunteering where you can, donating where you can to turn out sporadic voters, and helping us flip Arizona and preserve our progress in Michigan. 

So, with the caveat that even a failing Donald Trump is an unprecedented threat to American democracy and our freedom, it’s time to consider reality.

A vote for Donald Trump is a vote for JD Vance.

This is true because of Trump’s ever-diminishing capacities and because he is uniquely susceptible to flattering manipulation. And yet, no matter how you try to flatter him, there’s never enough you can do for him—unless you’re a Xi or a Putin or a Trump.

The more you try to please Trump, the more he expects and, eventually, rejects you.

Mike Pence learned this lesson. And so did Bill Barr.

In the latest episode of Ball of Thread, Marcy Wheeler digs deep into how Bill Barr killed the Mueller report, adding essential context to this well-known story with new revelations about how and why Barr plotted this effort to sanctify Trump’s treachery and crimes.

Barr says he gave up “millions” to go into the Trump administration with his plan to get Trump off and then punish anyone who tried to hold Trump accountable. Marcy posits that Barr’s narcissism is “enough” to explain his actions. And a huge part of the lure of Trump must have been the opportunity Barr saw to put his vision of “unitary executive theory” into practice with a president willing to embrace the monarchical energy that fuels that deluded reading of our Constitution.

Like Pence, like Barr, JD Vance sees Donald Trump as the perfect host for his parasitic ambitions.

And he sought Trump’s embrace, knowing how Trump’s previous sycophants had ultimately failed him. Vance knows that instead of standing astride the Olympus of MAGA with the Trumps, Pence and Barr now live in a vacuum of power where they must fear MAGA for the rest of their lives. And JD Vance seems to have no fear of becoming one of them.

Why?

Vance shares Barr’s Catholic authoritarian disdain for the democratic advances of the last fifty years. But he also has his own, possibly even darker, monarchial tendencies.

As a man whose primary vocation has been to act as a mascot for billionaires, JD Vance must feel that he’s magically suited to use Trump as his Trojan Horse. He can ride Trump to power, wait for the old man to croak, and then implement his agenda, which seems to be a ruthless reversal of American progress married to a techno-authoritarian desire to break America up and hand off what’s left to the oligarchs he likes best.

Like Barr and Pence, Vance could find that Trump only tolerates Donald Trump’s ambitions. There will be a line that you can’t cross, like trying to make him a dictator, that will end up making you first against the wall.

Or even worse, there may be no line for JD Vance.

That’s because he doesn’t see himself in line to be the next president. He sees himself as the next Donald Trump, but with 40 years of not being well ahead of him.