Now let’s win down-ballot

Kamala Harris’ superb rollout allows Democrats to win more lasting power in the states.

The fundraising tsunami since Joe Biden stepped down and Kamala Harris stepped up on Sunday has been historic in its scope and depth:

The coordinated Harris campaign reported Tuesday morning that they had raised more than $100 million from 1.1 million donors in the first 41 hours after President Biden announced he was stepping aside. FF PAC, also known as Future Forward, the largest outside group supporting Biden, announced $150 million in commitments in the first 24 hours after Biden’s Sunday afternoon announcement…

The Harris campaign also reported a massive increase in volunteer sign-ups, with 58,000 people in the first 48 hours, a sign-up rate that is 232 times larger than the Biden campaign’s daily average.

This presents an opportunity that Democrats haven’t had since 2008.

Now, let’s do the step-back thing where I note that this election, like every election since 2000 except 2008, will still be decided by a few stray percentage points in five or six or seven states. That’s just the math. 

But let’s take a quick look at those states! Democrats have a chance to hold key majorities, win one trifecta, set up another, break a hold on statehouses that have been gerrymandered into GOP control for over a decade, and take down a supermajority that exists beyond all pretenses of Democracy.

Here’s the rundown from the States Project:

Pennsylvania: “Holding the House and tying the Senate would create the potential for a new trifecta in 2026.”

Wisconsin: “It won’t be easy, but with these new maps we see a path to flipping the 15 seats we’ll need to shift the balance of power in the Legislature’s lower chamber.”

New Hampshire: “The rightwing holds the majority by two seats in the House. Under the current district maps, we see a path to shifting power in the chamber to prevent a rightwing trifecta in 2024.

Early dollars will help build out effective campaign infrastructure, including hiring staff to fill critical roles. Having that staff in place will be key for two House special elections that are slated to take place early next year.”

North Carolina: “In 2023, the newly rightwing North Carolina State Supreme Court reversed its previous decision and allowed gerrymandered maps to be enacted. There is no longer a path to winning a majority but there are paths to preventing a supermajority. Ending the supermajority in the House came down to just 315 votes in 2022 — and every district we targeted was a tight race. 

To achieve our goal of breaking the rightwing supermajority in the House, we need to net at least one additional seat, which means holding every seat we have plus flipping one more.”

Plus, we have to defend majorities in Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada, which would help put Kamala Harris in the White House in these two extremely tight states.

Plus, there’s a chance to break a supermajority in Kansas. And here’s a sleeper we’re going to be talking more about in the next few weeks: Ohio. Ending gerrymandering is on the ballot. The great Sherrod Brown is on the ballot, and his US Senate seat, to put it mildly, is a must-win. And Blue Ohio is trying to contest every seat in a way that hasn’t been done since 2008. So that’s gotta be on the radar.

Oh, wait I forgot one!

Arizona: “Though the rightwing holds a one-seat majority in both chambers, flipping two seats in each chamber would build a new trifecta in the state with the governing power to pass policies that improve the lives of all Arizonans.”

Which leads us to the other big news from Sunday.

Almost right as President Biden was making his gracious departure from the political fray, we passed a major milestone in our Flipping Arizona Giving Circle:

Wow. Though this is a drop in the tsunami, it’s huge for us. It’s so targeted and smart. And it really shows what happens when some very online weirdos get together and extend themselves to help others.

Now, we have to decide what to do next. Clearly, there are a lot of options. So first, we have to decide whether to stick to Arizona or pick another state. Then, we have to set the goal.

I asked in the Giving Circle, since those invested should have the most say, but the response was not… a tsunami. So I’m asking all of our earlyworm members. If you want to vote, please join—free or paid, your support matters.

This will be tight, but there is so much energy that we have to reach for the most possible change and power. And if we’re smart, the difference will be felt in millions or tens of millions of lives.